洪習會再度夯實「九二共識」,在「反對台獨」上進了一步,為「一中各表」留下空間,並重新試探「和平協議」的可能性。
一、再度夯實「九二共識」:據點計,洪與習在此會各說了三次「九二共識」。習近平說,台灣政局的變化改變不了「九二共識」的歷史事實和核心意涵,承不承認九二共識,關係認定一個國家還是兩個國家的根本問題;他說,在這個大是大非的問題上,大陸不可能有絲毫鬆動。習的這番話,可解讀為北京無可能在「九二共識」上對蔡政府退讓。
二、在「反對台獨」上更進一步:馬英九說「不獨」,是宣示自己的立場,並說「不會一中亂表」,且馬也未正面說過「反對台獨」。洪秀柱在洪習會上挑明「以和平政綱對抗台獨黨綱」,則有針對性,是直接向台獨黨綱宣戰。
習近平再次強調,以「九二共識」與「一中原則」及「反對台獨」連結,洪秀柱則挑明要對抗台獨黨綱;至此,「九二共識」與「反對台獨」的連結更加牢實(馬政府是以一中各表與九二共識連結)。蔡政府始終不接納「九二共識/一中各表」,未來若面臨內外對「台獨黨綱」的更直接壓力,儼然將成前門拒狼、後門迎虎的局面。
三、為「一中各表」留下空間:馬習會閉門會上,馬英九提到「一中各表」。洪秀柱在洪習會上則說:「求一中原則之同,存一中涵義之異」。此說首見於吳伯雄在二○一二年六月對胡錦濤說,再見於二○一三年二月連戰對習近平說。這些說法,雖未提「一中各表」,但說的都是「一中各表」。
洪在會內會外雖未說一中各表,但亦未再向一中同表推進,這或許顯示了洪團隊的知所進退,也反映了「一中各表」不是任意可以甩掉的概念。
其實,國台辦前副主任孫亞夫在二○一二年十一月也說過「求一個中國之同,存對一個中國政治涵義認知之異」;此與前述吳連洪三人的論述,可謂已是異口同聲。因而,此次洪習會能維持「一中涵義/求同存異」應值肯定,而習近平也把話只說到「在一個中國原則的基礎上」為止,亦未封堵「一中各表」的發展空間。
四、重新試探「和平協議」的可能性:洪說,希望兩岸探討以和平協議結束兩岸敵對狀態的可能性,「可能性」三字是在預留台灣內部政治的爭議空間。習稱,在一個中國原則的基礎上達成和平協議,也是中共的一貫主張,國共兩黨可就此進行探討。這顯示,兩岸已然脫離了「不統/不獨/不武」的騎驢看唱本走著瞧的互動模式,而必須有一指向,目標即使不是統一,亦必須以和平協議為歸趨。倘若國共能在探討和平協議上,就「一中各表」的簽約主體獲得解決方案,或許和平協議即可成為下階段兩岸間的引領議題。
此時,國民黨的實力與條件固然不如二○○五年連胡會時;但洪習會顯示北京斷然無意由民進黨操持兩岸關係的主導權,這將使蔡政府與當年扁政府一般同處邊緣化的地位。總統府發言人稱,「希望所有政黨應對外團結一致,支持由政府主導的兩岸關係」,語意即顯露了失落。
蔡總統對洪習會的評論十分緩和,她再度呼籲「北京應正視中華民國的存在」,但她如何解釋在台獨黨綱下中華民國的存在?至於她說「兩岸領導人應共同展現智慧和彈性,一起把兩岸現存的分歧帶向雙贏的未來」,但這智慧與彈性,難道不正存在於九二共識中嗎?
習近平脫稿說出:「如果中國共產黨不處理台獨,中國人民會推翻他們。」此話說得極重。蔡政府應自問:「民進黨若再不處理台獨,有無可能有一天也會失去台灣人民的支持?」
蔡政府應慎思:「九二共識/一中各表」,也許是比較有可能選取的出路。
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